BTC: $72,900 | ETH: $2,285 | SOL: $84 | SPY: $679 | Crypto Fear & Greed: 16 (Extreme Fear)

Crypto: Bitcoin crossed $72,000 after the Iran ceasefire landed Tuesday and hasn't given it back. ETH climbed above $2,200 for the first time in weeks. SOL is around $84. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index (Alternative.me, crypto-specific, not a stock market reading) sits at 16, still deep in Extreme Fear. Prices are up, sentiment isn't. That gap between what the charts show and what the index says is the kind of disconnect that usually marks the tail end of a fear cycle. Usually. Whether this is actually the tail end depends on what happens in the next ten days. The Islamabad talks collapsed Saturday. Vance flew home with nothing. Trump threatened a full naval blockade. If that becomes real, crypto goes risk-off again and the fear index drops further. If a deal materializes before April 22, the index could snap from 16 to 40 overnight. Crypto doesn't do gradual.

Stocks: SPY closed Friday at $679, up from $656 last week. Seven consecutive up days on the S&P 500 before a slight Friday pullback. VIX dropped to 19.23, its lowest since the war started. The stock market mood and the crypto mood are in completely different rooms right now. Equities got the ceasefire rally, but the real story underneath was March CPI. The headline: 3.3% annually, highest since early 2024, driven by a 10.9% energy spike. Gasoline accounted for three-quarters of the monthly jump. That's the number everyone panicked about. The number that actually matters: core CPI rose 0.2%, came in below forecast at 2.6% year over year. The market figured out the difference in about fifteen minutes. The 3.3% is the one that'll make the evening news. The 2.6% is the one the Fed will actually use. If core stays contained, the Fed can wait. If energy keeps pushing the headline, rate cuts stay off the table through 2026 and every equity position in the stack prices in higher-for-longer.

The stack: Covered call ETFs had a strong week. Volatility from the war and ceasefire uncertainty kept option premiums elevated, which means distributions across SPYI, JEPI, JEPQ, and QQQI benefit from the chop. DeFi yields don't correlate to oil, CPI, or anything happening at a negotiating table in Pakistan. The ETH/USDC pool produced $120 this week while the Strait of Hormuz stayed closed. Real estate income is locked in through leases. Three income streams, three different engines. When one stalls, the others don't notice.

TSMC reported Q1 2026 revenue of $35.7 billion on Thursday. That's 35% year over year growth. March alone was up 45.2%. AI chip demand from Nvidia, Apple, and AMD isn't slowing down. It's accelerating into a war that threatens Taiwan's own energy supply chain.

TSM popped about 3% on the news. The full earnings call comes Thursday April 16, and that's where guidance on Q2 and full-year outlook will either confirm the trajectory or give the market a reason to take profit.

This matters for the stack directly. I opened a TSM put spread Monday and closed it Friday off the back of this revenue beat. Four days, start to finish. More on that in the Strategy section.

The broader point: oil is above $95. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively still closed. Taiwan imports 95% of its energy. And the biggest chipmaker on Earth just posted a quarter that says none of that has slowed demand for the chips powering the AI buildout. If you've been watching semiconductor names for entry points, TSMC is running a 35% growth rate with a geopolitical discount baked in. The market is pricing in the risk. The revenue says the demand doesn't care about the risk.

What I'm watching this week:

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Every week I track every dollar I earn outside my W2. My FIRE number (Financial Independence, Retire Early) is $10,000 a month. That's the number where the job becomes optional.

No new purchases this week. I collected $120 in premium from the DeFi liquidity pool positions and focused the options side on closing winners and rolling into new positions.

Real estate, 1 duplex and 3 single family units, net after mortgage with the 50% rule applied: $1,297/month

ETH/USDC liquidity pool (consolidated), 65% APR: ~$120/week (~$520/month)

Dividend ETFs, SPYI, JEPI, JEPQ, QQQI and five others: $100/month

Options premium selling (TSM, MU, AVGO, SOFI, WDC): variable, tracking in progress

Total outside the W2: ~$1,917/month (excluding options income until consistent tracking) FIRE goal: $10,000/month Progress: 19.2%

The DeFi number ticked up from last week's ~$455/month to roughly $520. Nothing changed structurally. The pool's fee income fluctuates week to week and the higher number reflects a busier trading week in the ETH/USDC pair, likely driven by the ceasefire volatility moving capital around. I'm not reading too much into one week's variance. The number that matters is the monthly average over time.

Honest take: not buying anything this week felt harder than buying. The TSM revenue beat made me want to add to that position. AVGO is at a price I find interesting. But the ceasefire just collapsed and the next ten days will tell us whether oil goes back above $100 or the Strait actually reopens. Sitting still when you want to move is its own kind of discipline.

This was a busy week on the options side, even though I didn't add to any long positions.

Monday I opened a TSM put spread. By Friday, TSMC reported Q1 revenue that blew past estimates and the stock jumped. The spread was profitable enough to close in four trading days. That's the fastest turnaround I've had on a position since starting the options income stream. The revenue beat did the work. I just had the position on at the right time.

I also closed a MU put spread, closed my AVGO credit spreads, and closed out some Western Digital spreads that had been open for a few weeks. All winners. Not all of them were fast, but the theme this week was taking profit where it existed rather than holding through the ceasefire deadline uncertainty.

On the new side, I opened a SOFI covered call position expiring 4/24 and opened new MU and AVGO positions expiring 5/8. The SOFI trade is different from the others because it's a covered call, meaning I own the shares and I'm selling calls against them. The MU and AVGO positions are credit spreads, same structure as before.

What I'm watching next week on options: the TSMC earnings call Thursday could create another setup. If guidance is strong and the stock pulls back on profit-taking, I'll look at another short-term put spread. If the ceasefire collapses and VIX spikes, I'll sell premium more aggressively on names I want to own at lower prices. The sizing stays small until there's clarity on Iran.

I closed TSM in four days for a profit. That feels great. It happened because a revenue beat landed at exactly the right time for my position. I didn't predict the revenue beat. I didn't know TSMC would report on that specific day when I opened Monday's trade. Lucky timing.

The mistake is treating a fast win as proof the strategy works perfectly. The strategy works because I'm selling premium on companies I understand, at strike prices I'd be comfortable owning, with position sizes that won't hurt if they go wrong. The four-day close is a nice result, not a repeatable expectation.

If you're starting with options: your winners will whisper "you're a genius" and your losers will whisper "the market is broken." They're both lying. The strategy is what sits underneath all of them. Size small. Pick names you know. And when you get a fast win, resist the urge to double the next one.

One question before you go

What's the one position or purchase you've been wanting to make but keep talking yourself out of? And what's actually stopping you?

Hit reply. One line is enough. I read every one.

Forward this to one person who needs to read it today.

Keep stacking.

@YieldSage

Not financial advice. Do your own research. Only invest what you can afford to lose.